United States of America

[Schneemann]

Ein recht interessanter Artikel zum Thema des overstretch der westlichen Vormacht. Wobei es ja nicht nur darum geht, dass die USA mehrere Konflikte zugleich "bedienen" müssten (etwa in Asien, in der Ukraine und ggf. auch im Nahen Osten), sondern auch darum, inwieweit sich die innenpolitischen Verwerfungen auf die Außenpolitik auswirken. Und es gibt nicht nur Sorgen bzgl. der wachsenden Wohlstands-Kluft oder politischer Selbstblockade und Radikalisierung bzw. extrem libertärem Isolationismus etc., sondern es ist auch so, dass die US-Streitkräfte zwar ein riesiges Budget haben, aber insgesamt gesehen die Zahl der verfügbaren Systeme und die Manpower langsam, aber beständig absinkt, während die tendenziell feindselig der demokratischen (westlichen) Hemisphäre gegenüberstehenden Nationen wie Russland, China oder auch Nordkorea geradezu massiv aufrüsten.

In gewisser Weise, ohne ihm das Wort reden zu wollen, war Trumps Schelte gegen die NATO bzw. die indirekte Drohung, keinen Beistand zu leisten, wenn die Verbündeten ihren vertraglichen Verpflichtungen nicht nachkommen, durchaus auch mit einem realen Hintergrund verbunden: Nämlich dem, dass die USA auch die Unterstützung der manchmal trägen Europäer benötigen - und die Europäer sollten auch erkennen, dass sie das nicht deswegen tun, weil es Washington gefällt, sondern dass sie es aus eigenem Interesse tun sollten; denn wenn Washington irgendwann nicht mehr helfen kann (zumindest nicht im großen Stil), wenn die Lage in Asien eskalieren sollte, dann werden die Europäer sich selbst helfen müssen - und da hätte ich aktuell meine großen Zweifel...

The “world’s policeman”: how many geopolitical fronts can the US maintain?

As Biden admits the US “could be drawn in” to a Middle East war, flashpoints across Europe and the Indo-Pacific become increasingly strained.

From catastrophic military interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan to dictatorship-enabling, Kissinger-led subterfuge in Chile and Argentina, the US’s role as the “world’s policeman” since the aftermath of the conflict-ridden 1930s and 1940s has been far from flawless. [...]

But domestic political pressure to disengage from ‘forever wars’ and cut foreign spending birthed a trend of US isolationism, epitomised by the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2021 which allowed the Taliban to regain control. It was short-lived. So far this year, the US has fought on more geopolitical fronts than at any other time in its history.

Escalating conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have dominated headlines – and US military funding. But pressure from adversaries, including China, North Korea, Iran and Russia in the South China Sea, Korean Peninsula, Red Sea and Eastern Europe, has elicited an unexpectedly strong US presence in Japan, Germany, South Korea, Israel and other allies. [...]

The US has 168,000 active-duty troops serving overseas (as of last September – this number may have increased significantly in the last seven months), spread across more than 750 bases in 80 countries. [...]

The issue is not just that US troops are spread far and thin. Warfare is no longer determined by army size but rather by military technology – and, even if it was, the US could quickly mobilise troops.

Lawmakers in Washington see resources and diplomatic tension as more pressing issues. On 24 April, Biden ended a months-long saga over aid for Ukraine, signing a bill to send Kyiv $61bn of air defence munitions, artillery, rocket systems and armoured vehicles. The bill is designed to prolong aid for Ukraine even if Biden does not retain office after the US elections in November, says Carolina Pinto, thematic analyst at GlobalData.

“Biden isn’t following the traditional US interventionism with the national security bill”, Pinto tells Army Technology. “This bill is about securing foreign aid before the elections, so regardless of the result, the US can continue to militarily support Ukraine and Israel. Truth be told, Ukraine is completely dependent on foreign support, with the US providing almost 50% of Ukraine’s military aid.” [...]

Crossed diplomatic lines – and the threat of China – have left Washington seeking to shift more of the Ukraine burden onto European shoulders, according to Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard.

“The greater burden sharing in security and defence spending expected from wealthy European allies should from now on be seen as part of a broader division of labour, whereby Europe bears the main burden of countering the Russian threat in its own neighbourhood freeing up the US to focus more on its key ‘pacing challenge’ regarding China”, Granville tells Army Technology. [...]

Germany, at least, seems to have acknowledged this challenge. Ukraine’s second-largest benefactor pledged further aid in the form of a Patriot interceptor, batteries and radars last week. “Europe, however, does not have the stockpiles let alone the manufacturing capacity to replenish Ukraine’s gaping holes by itself”, Granville adds.

Biden appears keen to push Nato members to prioritise defence, although he is not as openly hostile on the matter as Trump.

In February, the former US President sparked outrage by stating that, if he returns to the White House office, he would encourage Russia to do “what it damn well likes” to any European country which spends less than the Nato-stipulated 2% of GDP on defence. [...]

Japan and South Korea’s willingness to cooperate on military drills is emblematic of just how wary both countries are of China – and North Korea, which has ramped up weapons testing in recent months. Japan’s 35-year colonisation of the Korean Peninsula still lingers in the memory of South Koreans, sometimes straining the relationship between the two US allies. [...]

Recently, Washington has encountered greater difficulties in balancing the geopolitical dynamic of its European and Middle Eastern allies than Indo-Pacific partners. [...] As the clamour reaches boiling point, Washington may be left to decide between standing by long-time ally Israel or placating its wider network of geopolitical allies across Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

https://www.naval-technology.com/feature...n/?cf-view



Schneemann