Russland & Verbündete gegen Europa & USA

[Quintus Fabius]

https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins...-the-west/

It is doubtful that the Russian leadership can back down without external and internal audience costs. Over the past month, the West has also been arming Ukraine in anticipation of a Russian attack, hardly a policy success for Moscow. If Putin backs down with nothing, the domestic and international perception will be that he was either bluffing or, even worse, was successfully deterred. Putin will end up with the worst of both worlds, seen as simultaneously aggressive and resistible. Also, while an authoritarian state may care less about domestic audience perceptions, the elites, or the so-called “selectorate,” are another matter. Authoritarian leaders like Putin can find their ability to manage political coalitions diminished if elites perceive them as reckless, incompetent, and increasingly unfit to rule. Putin certainly has options, but this is not a contest in which he can afford to back down cost-free.

Auch meiner Meinung nach das tatsächliche Hauptproblem hier. Die Russen können angesichts unserer Reaktionen auf ihre Fehler zunehmend gar nicht mehr anders als tatsächlich in die Ukraine einzumarschieren.