Nordkorea vs. Südkorea

[Schneemann]

Die beständig zunehmenden Drohungen aus dem Norden - sei es durch Raketentests, die dem Nachbarn über das Dach hinweg geschossen werden, seien es die Ankündigungen, dass eigene nukleare Arsenal massiv auszubauen -, haben im Süden wohl verstärkt dazu beigetragen, dass sich die Ansicht durchsetzt, dass man angesichts des irrlichternden Diktators im Norden nun eigene Atomwaffen benötigt.

Why are South Koreans losing faith in America’s nuclear umbrella?

Seoul (CNN) — They have them, so we need them.

That is the fundamental argument for South Koreans who want their country to develop its own nuclear weapons. It’s about the need to protect themselves from an aggressive northern neighbor that is already a nuclear power in all but name and whose leader Kim Jong Un has vowed an “exponential increase” in his arsenal. The counter-argument, which has has long stopped Seoul from pursuing the bomb, lies in the likely consequences. Developing nukes would not only upset the country’s relationship with the United States, it would likely invite sanctions that could strangle Seoul’s access to nuclear power. And that is to say nothing of the regional arms race it would almost inevitably provoke.

But which side of the argument South Koreans find themselves on appears to be changing. [...] Recent opinion polls show a majority of South Koreans support their country having its own nuclear weapons program; a string of prominent academics who once shunned the idea have switched sides; even President Yoon Suk Yeol has floated the idea. [...]

For supporters, Seoul developing its own nukes would finally answer the age-old question: “Would Washington risk San Francisco for Seoul in the event of nuclear war?”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/21/asia/...index.html

Dazu auch:

Is South Korea Considering Nuclear Weapons?

Whether South Korea builds a nuclear bomb on its own or not, nuclear weapons are gaining greater importance in the national security thinking of many states in the Indo-Pacific.

In a rather surprising move, South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol publicly suggested the possibility of Seoul developing its own nuclear weapons in the face of growing nuclear threats from North Korea. He made the comment at an official policy briefing by South Korea’s foreign and defense ministries on January 11. He reportedly suggested that South Korea could pursue its own nuclear bomb if the United States fails to deploy nuclear weapons in order to address the North Korean nuclear threat, saying this “would not take long” given the “technological prowess” of the South. [...]

Yoon’s office fairly quickly clarified that South Korea had “no plans” to develop nuclear weapons. U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby highlighted the Korean clarification and added that both Washington and Seoul are in the process of making “improvements in extended deterrence capabilities.” [...]

In addition, in 2022 alone, North Korea conducted more than 90 cruise and ballistic missile tests, breaking past records. Its nuclear arsenal appears to be steadily growing, with a number of new missiles being developed, including missiles with potentially intercontinental ranges, such as the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-17. Given the overall state of its nuclear weapons program, the path to denuclearization of North Korea is clearly at a dead end. Washington’s call for complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement is unlikely to yield results. Some U.S. officials have indeed suggested arms control with North Korea — which implies recognition of North Korea’s nuclear weapon status in some form — though these comments were subsequently walked back by the U.S. State Department. These comments potentially heightened fears in Seoul that the United States was preparing the grounds for a change in policy toward North Korea.

https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/is-south...r-weapons/

Die Folgen eines solchen südkoreanischen Schrittes wären tatsächlich nur schwer kalkulierbar. Die Lage auf der koreanischen Halbinsel würde wohl nicht sicherer werden, eher stiege die Gefahr eines Overkills. Ferner wäre der Atomwaffensperrvertrag, den Seoul unterzeichnet und ratifiziert hat, erneut ausgehebelt worden. Ein politisch verheerendes Signal. Hinzu kommt auch, dass Peking wohl nicht glücklich wäre mit zwei kleinen Atommächten vor der Haustüre. Und in Japan wäre es wohl ähnlich, wenngleich auch aus anderen bzw. historischen Gründen.

Schneemann