Vor 4 Stunden
(Vor 5 Stunden)Quintus Fabius schrieb: muck:
Schlussendlich ist es eine einfache Abnutzung. Israel hat eine unbekannte Anzahl Abwehrraketen, der Iran eine unbekannte Anzahl ballistischer Raketen. Beide verbrauchen sich. Die Seite, die zuerst ans Ende ihrer Raketen kommt gewinnt in diesem Teilaspekt.
Eine Analyse von Patricia Marins · 16 juin 2025
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Zitat:Patricia Marins
@pati_marins64
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Shortage of Defense Missiles Could Leave Israel Defenseless and Force the U.S. to Enter the War
The massive movement of refueling aircraft departing from the U.S. to Europe and the significant activity at nearby American bases, along with the arrival of the Nimitz group, leads me to believe that the U.S. is preparing to attack Iran.
The main reason is not Iran's nuclear program, as Israel already knew it could not destroy it, and neither could the U.S. without a ground operation.
The U.S. involvement would primarily be to stop the missile barrages against Israel, which are rapidly depleting Israel's defense missile stockpiles.
Israel currently has three Arrow 3 batteries and two David's Sling batteries for intercepting ballistic and cruise missiles.
Considering that Iranian barrages over the past 3 days have amounted to more than 400 missiles, and intercept doctrine typically allocates 2 defensive missiles per ballistic and a salvo of 3 per hypersonic missile, followed by another salvo of 2, I would say that Israel has already used around 700-800 missiles from these 2 systems.
Both David's Sling and Arrow 3 became operational in 2017, giving them 7 years of missile production.
Considering further that the U.S. produces about 500 Patriot missiles annually, even with 1,400 batteries and various operators; and MBDA produces about 130 Aster 30 missiles per year, I would say Israel produces no more than 100-150 David's Sling missiles per year, which would provide a stockpile of at most 1,050 missiles over the last 7 years.
As for Arrow 3, I would compare it by saying that up to today, about 800 THAAD missiles have been produced over 17 years to supply the 9 batteries produced so far. That makes me believe that Arrow 3, with only 3 batteries, does not have more than 500-600 missiles in stock, to be optimistic.
Thus, we might say that Israel's two anti-missile systems had about 1,600 missiles before the conflict and may have depleted half of this stock in 3 days.
Even with the U.S. having provided 2 THAAD batteries to the Israelis, this would add at most another 200-300 missiles.
I estimate that Israel has about 900-1,100 interception missiles in stock, which, if revealed, would cause panic, as it is enough for another 4-5 days of protection at the levels of attack used by Iran in recent nights.
The arrival of the Nimitz group rushing from the South China Sea will help bolster Israel's air defense but only for a few more days.
This could be the main reason some barrages have not been intercepted, as seen in some videos made by residents.
Israel is racing against time to prevent Iran from being capable of large-scale launches and will need U.S. help for this. Although GBU-57 bombs cannot destroy nuclear bunkers, they can damage Iranian missile silos, which have already been mapped by drones.
At this point, the Israelis know the risks they face, and the Iranians do not know how long they can continue with the launches, making an agreement advantageous for both parties, although I undoubtedly believe that Israel is in a better position.