03.04.2022, 13:02
Militaryland Tag 37 und 38:
Wer hätte das je gedacht (außer vielleicht Nightwatch) ! Ich ging rein persönlich von ungefähr 20 Tagen bis zur völligen Niederlage der Ukraine aus ! Erbeutete Dokumente zeigen, dass die Russen selbst mit einer Feldzugsdauer von ungefähr 15 Tagen gerechnet haben.
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...7-summary/
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...8-summary/
JOMINI:
Wer hätte das je gedacht (außer vielleicht Nightwatch) ! Ich ging rein persönlich von ungefähr 20 Tagen bis zur völligen Niederlage der Ukraine aus ! Erbeutete Dokumente zeigen, dass die Russen selbst mit einer Feldzugsdauer von ungefähr 15 Tagen gerechnet haben.
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...7-summary/
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...8-summary/
JOMINI:
Zitat:Gesamtkarte:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15101...64/photo/1
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 37: Today’s update focuses on each of the Strategic Fronts in the UTW. BLUF, Ukraine has defeated Russian forces along the Kyiv-Chernihiv & Sumy Fronts. East Ukraine is now the focal point of operations.
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees exceed 5.4 million, with 6.5 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. As Russian forces pull out of NW Kyiv, the brutality of their occupation is more apparent. Russia continues to block aid convoys access to Mariupol.
3/ Weather assessment. Thunderstorms & wintery mix remain in the forecast & will continue to adversely affect aerospace and ground operations. Poor weather may hamper Ukrainian attempts to disrupt the Russian retreat from Kyiv. Temperatures generally will remain between 17/ 0 C.
Der Schlamm ist nun vollumfänglich da. Da geht querfeldein zur Zeit gar nichts mehr.
Das behindert übrigens auch die ukrainischen Gegenangriffe die ansonsten eventuell sogar noch erfolgreicher wären.
Karte Kyiv-Chernihiv:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15101...66/photo/1
4/ Kyiv-Chernihiv Front. Russian forces along the Kyiv-Chernihiv Strategic Front have been defeated. The past 48 hrs. have seen an orderly Russian withdrawal from NW & west Kyiv toward Belarus. The siege of Chernihiv has ended. East Kyiv is also free of Russian troops.
5/ BLUF, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have out fought & out generaled the Russian military. The Ukrainian victory in Kyiv and NE Ukraine will undoubtedly become a case study in urban defense, area defense, and deep operations in an extended battlefield.
Das Kernelement des ukrainischen Erfolges war der Jagdkampf echter leichter Infanterie ! Sowie der Kombination von Drohnen zur Zielmarkierung (Drohen mit Laser) und Artillerie mit entsprechender Munition.
Karte Sumy:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15101...38/photo/1
6/ Sumy Front. Russian forces along the Sumy Strategic Front have been defeated. Russian forces are abandoning equipment that is not functional to speed up their retreat before follow-on Ukrainian counterattacks are able to isolate retreating Russian formations.
7/ The defeat of Russian forces in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, & Sumy Oblasts illustrates Ukraine’s successful employment of an economized force centered on light infantry, mech & artillery groups, and a mix of UAVs and air strikes to shape an extended battlefield for deep operations.
Karte Kharkiv-Donbas:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15101...41/photo/1
8/ Kharkiv-Donbas Front. The Russians seek to secure the political objective point of the entire Donetsk & Luhansk Oblast up to their administrative borders. If the Russians can exploit their Izium victory, they may be able to move deep in the rear of UAF positions along the LOC.
Wie von mir vorgestern vorhergesagt. Aber das ist kein Automatismus und es besteht trotzdem die Möglichkeit, dass die Ukrainer ihre Stellungen halten und nicht einmal eingekesselt werden.
Karte Süden:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15101...72/photo/1
9/ Southern Front. Russian attempts to renew operations toward Mykolaiyv have not been successful. Russian focus in on the establishment of a “Kherson People’s Republic” to meet the Kremlin’s endstate for the territorial conquest of southern & eastern Ukraine.
10/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS operations over the Donbas continue to increase. Air strikes are not only directed against military targets but are expanding to destroy more civilian infrastructure across the Donbas and interdict aid convoy & humanitarian corridor routes.
11/ MANPADS remain the most common form of air defense in the Donbas. The Ukrainians needs to either redeploy or procure more robust air defense systems capable of providing cover to civilian infrastructure, otherwise VKS air sorties will cause significant losses in the region.
Man muss es mal klar aussprechen: ohne die westlichen MANPADS wären die ukrainischen Streitkräfte in diesem Bereich vernichtet worden.
12/ Information War. It is hard not to become overly emotional at the sights of images emerging from the formerly Russian occupied areas of west & NW Kyiv. The willful devastation coupled with stories of murder and rape cannot be ignored.
Vergewaltigungen sind im Krieg normal und de facto nicht verhinderbar. Es wird immer irgendwelche Truppen geben die davon ausgehen, dass sie so oder so drauf gehen werden und denen es daher egal ist und die deshalb vergewaltigen werden. Das ist keine Rechtfertigung, nur eine Erklärung.
13/ As hard as it is to look at, and mentally process, these inhuman acts must be documented and reported. Documentation is necessary for the prosecution of war crimes. Reporting is vital to make the case Ukraine needs sustained assistance to win the final victory.
Insbesondere auch der ukrainischen Kriegsverbrechen ?!
14/ Although the past week has seen a series of Ukrainian victories, they war is far from over. Ukraine is still in a perilous position, although it is winning it could still lose. The fight for the Donbas will be vicious. Russia is staking everything on success here.
Das kann man gar nicht genug betonen. Die russische Armee muss de facto im Donbass siegen. Ansonsten wäre dies das Ende des Systems Putin und auch das Ende von Putin selbst. Entsprechend extrem wird der Druck sein.
15/ Unlike the first month of the war, which saw multiple unfocused and under resourced offensives, the fight for the Donbas will be intensely focused and resourced by Russia. The tactical situation, though not ideal, still favors Russia in the Donbas.
16/ We will likely see more violent crackdowns against Ukrainian civilians resisting Russian occupation. More savage assaults on urban centers, increased use of thermobaric or illegal munitions (i.e., more white phosphorous) and potentially chemical weapons.
Schon lustig Weißen Phosphor für illegal zu erklären, wo der Westen TM diesen ebenfalls im Irak eingesetzt hat.
17/ Now comes the truly gut-wrenching part of the war, one in which Putin & the Kremlin will use every tool at their disposal to reverse the defeat in Kyiv & NE Ukraine in a ruthless attempt to salvage some notion of “victory”. Now is the time Ukraine needs the West the most.