USA vs. Iran

[Shahab3]

Iran Outmaneuvers U.S. in the Syrian Proxy War
By Vali Nasr Jun 5, 2013 12:00 AM GMT+0200

Syria’s uprising offered the possibility of a strategic defeat of Iran. In this scenario, Iran would be weakened by the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, its single Arab ally and a vital link to Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia. Isolated, Iran would become more vulnerable to international pressure to limit its nuclear program. And as Iran’s regional influence faded, those of its rivals -- U.S. allies Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia -- would expand.

Instead, events in Syria are spinning in Iran’s favor. Assad’s regime is winning ground, the war has made Iran more comfortable in its nuclear pursuits, and Iran’s gains have embarrassed U.S. allies that support the Syrian uprising. What’s more, Iran has strengthened its relationship with Russia, which may prove to be the most important strategic consequence of the Syrian conflict, should the U.S. continue to sit it out.
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Russia shares Iran’s fear of the rising Sunni tide sweeping across the Arab world. This trend, Kremlin officials think, will fuel Islamic radicalism in Russia’s Muslim regions. They see Syria through the prism of the war in Chechnya and fault Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia for supporting Sunni extremism first in the Caucasus and Central Asia and now in the Middle East. They see themselves fighting alongside Iran, against America’s allies, in a war against Sunni radicals.

If successful in Syria, the Russian-Iranian bloc will seek greater influence in new areas, such as the Persian Gulf. It’s worth noting that Russia invited Bahrain’s Shiite opposition party, al-Wifaq, to visit Moscow in February.

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