Scharmützel an Iranisch-Azerbaijanischer Grenze

[Shahab3]

Einen Konflikt zwischen Aserbaidschan und dem Iran kann ich mir nicht gut vorstellen, es sei denn, die Aserbaidschaner sind vollkommen verrückt. Aber die Stimmung in der Region ist ja ziemlich geladen, siehe Berg-Karabach. Was ich daher viel interessanter finde: Wie gross ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass der Iran in einen möglichen Krieg zwischen Armenien und Aserbaidschan hineingezogen wird?

Im Konflikt zwischen Armenien und Azerbaijan ist der Iran zur Schlichtung verpflichtet, da die kulturelle Bande zwischen den Völkern sehr eng ist und der Iran kein Interesse an einem Krieg vor seiner Haustür haben kann, der ggf. noch externe Kräfte wie Europäer, Amerikaner oder Israelis anzieht. Das Verhältnis zwischen dem Staat Iran und dem Staat Azerbaijan ist aber das tendenziell problematischere bzw von gegenseitigem Misstrauen begleitet, was nicht zuletzt eine Folge der Teilung Azerbaijans ist.

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Analysis | 06.10.10 | 13:47
Armenia, Iran, Azerbaijan: Dependence and benefits
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“There is some tension in the relations between Azerbaijan and Iran. The Iranian side is waiting for statements that Azerbaijan will not raise the issue of Southern Azerbaijan [territory of Iran’s northern provinces], that Azerbaijan’s territory will not be used as a springboard for launching strikes against Iran. And Azerbaijan wants to hear Iran publicly support the position of Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict,” writes Karabakh analyst Vardan Mamikonyan.

In its turn, independent Azerbaijani expert Togrul Sofiev stated that “Iran is trying again and again to feel the ground in Azerbaijan to make sure there is no threat to the security of its border from its northern neighbor; to get new guarantees from it.”

From time to time Baku provokes Iran to make statements about recognizing Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. The latest such recognition was made in Baku by Iranian Minister of Culture Ahmed Ali Reza Beygi. He said that Iran has always supported Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict.

Nevertheless, those in Azerbaijan are dissatisfied with Iran’s behavior. In Baku, they say that Iran has ‘spoilt’ the whole effect of the blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey against Armenia.

“During the war, Iran rendered every assistance to Armenia. And, it was through Iran that Armenia gets a considerable part of its foodstuffs and industrial goods, which makes the blockade imposed by Azerbaijan and Turkey ineffective,” says Sofiev.

The Azeri expert says that at least 20 million Iranian Azeris have no schools to study in their native language, while 250,000 Armenians in Iran have several national schools.
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