Zitat:Broensen schrieb:
Wir stellen ja nur in den Raum, die Schwelle für den NATO-Bündnisfall derart zu definieren, dass diese bereits durch einen Nuklearschlag in der Ukraine überschritten wäre, und somit Rot als Angreifer eine begrenzte militärische Antwort der NATO zu erwarten hätte.

Zitat:Quintus Fabius Aber die Situation ist einfach viel ernster als es die Menschen hierzulande mehrheitlich überhaupt wahrnehmen. Denen erscheint Russland wie eine jetzt geschlagene Regionalmacht die keine Bedrohung mehr darstellt, dabei ist das Gegenteil der Fall.

Zitat:Ukrainian navy says large Russian landing ship destroyed at occupied port

The Ukrainian Navy says a large Russian landing ship docked at the Ukrainian port of Berdyansk has been destroyed. Making the announcement in a Facebook post, the navy does not provide any further details.

Earlier, large explosions and heavy smoke were seen in the area. On Monday, Russia’s military said it had docked the large landing support ship, Orsk, at the dock. [...]

Zitat:"Endet in atomarer Explosion"

Medwedew warnt USA vor "zerstörtem" Russland

Äußerungen des Ex-Ministerpräsidenten Medwedew lassen tief in die Gedankenwelt des Kreml blicken. Der Putin-Vertraute sieht eine westliche Verschwörung, an deren Ende die Zerstörung Russlands steht. Das hätte eine atomare Katastrophe zufolge.

Der Vize-Chef des russischen Sicherheitsrates, Dmitri Medwedew, warnt die USA vor einem Zusteuern auf eine atomare Katastrophe für die Welt, sollten sie mit der von ihm so bezeichneten Verschwörung zur Zerstörung Russlands fortfahren. [...] Russlands Zusammenbruch würde zum Entstehen von fünf oder sechs Staaten auf der eurasischen Landmasse führen, die Atomwaffen besitzen und von "Freaks, Fanatikern und Radikalen" regiert würden. "Ist das eine Dystopie oder eine verrückte futuristische Vorhersage? Ist es Pulp Fiction? Nein."

Zitat:Kreml-Sonderbeauftragter Tschubais tritt zurück

Moskau (dpa) - Der Sonderbeauftragte des russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin für Beziehungen zu internationalen Organisationen, Anatoli Tschubais, hat seinen Rücktritt erklärt. Dies bestätigte ein Sprecher des früheren Spitzenpolitikers, der stets zum liberalen Lager gerechnet wurde, in Moskau. [...]

Der Rücktritt des 66-Jährigen soll nach Medienberichten in Zusammenhang mit Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine stehen. Von seinem Sprecher gab es dazu keinen Kommentar. Nach einem Bericht der Tageszeitung "RBK" will Tschubais zusammen mit seiner Frau in die Türkei ausreisen. Dazu sagte Peskow der Agentur Interfax zufolge, dies sei Tschubais "persönliche Sache".

Zitat:What role is Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov playing in Ukraine war?

Chechen forces deployed in Ukraine appear to be more of a ‘PR initiative’ than military utility, analysts say.

Just two days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine was launched, Ramzan Kadyrov, president of Russia’s Chechen Republic, announced his forces were deployed to the battlefield. Since then, Chechnya’s leader has posted on social media regular updates and videos of Chechen soldiers allegedly participating in military and humanitarian activities on Ukrainian territory. [...]

Observers, however, say despite their reputation as fierce fighters, Chechen forces sent to Ukraine have not played a significant role on the battlefield. Their presence has been perceived as a public relations exercise, one that reflects both Kadyrov’s own political posturing and the Kremlin’s propaganda needs. [...] Kadyrov has claimed that Chechen volunteers ready to go to Ukraine are in the tens of thousands. A report from Russian state broadcaster RT reported some 12,000 Chechen troops were prepared to deploy to Ukraine, but there has been no confirmation of how many are actually on the ground. [...]

In a March 15 post on social media, Igor Girkin, a former commander of Russian-backed separatist forces in Donetsk, said Chechen soldiers had not participated in the fighting in Mariupol. In a March 16 interview, Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok battalion, part of the Donetsk separatist forces, said Chechen soldiers came to Mariupol ill-equipped. [...] Other Chechen forces are in Ukraine that have joined the Ukrainian side. They are part of the Dzhokhar Dudayev and Sheikh Mansur volunteer battalions, which were also engaged in fighting in eastern Ukraine in 2014-15. They are made up of Chechens who openly oppose Kadyrov, but according to Chambers, have not directly faced “Kadyrovtsy” on the front line so far.

(24.03.2022, 14:42)voyageur schrieb: aber was ich nicht versteh warum du unbedingt den nächsten Europa/Weltkrieg vorbereiten willst ????

Zitat:Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat who heads the Armed Services Committee, said on Wednesday that if Mr. Putin used a weapon of mass destruction — chemical, biological or nuclear — “there would be consequences” even if the weapon’s use was confined to Ukraine. Mr. Reed said radiation from a nuclear weapon, for instance, could waft into a neighboring NATO country and be considered an attack on a NATO member

Zitat:A senior administration official said any use of a “small” tactical nuclear bomb by Russia — even inside Ukraine and not directed at a NATO member — would mean that “all bets are off” on the United States and NATO staying out of the war. But when pushed, the official declined to lay out the responses under discussion.

Zitat:On the prospect of Russia using chemical weapons amid the invasion of Ukraine, Biden said only that “we would respond.” The President did not offer more specifics, saying only that “the nature of the response would depend on the nature of use."

(24.03.2022, 22:02)Quintus Fabius schrieb: So wie du es selbst darlegst, sind doch die Wahrscheinlichkeiten für einen negativen Ausgang immer noch viel zu hoch. Das ist doch ein einziges Hasardeurtum. Selbst wenn die Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen vollumfänglichen Atomkrieg "nur" bei 25% oder weniger liegen sollte (eine von vier Optionen) ist das politisch-strategisch absolut untragbar.

(24.03.2022, 22:02)Quintus Fabius schrieb: Selbst wenn die Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen vollumfänglichen Atomkrieg "nur" bei 25% oder weniger liegen sollte (eine von vier Optionen) ist das politisch-strategisch absolut untragbar.

Zitat:Sicherer Weg im Schwarzen Meer

Russland: Auslands-Schiffe erhalten See-Korridor

Der Schiffsverkehr auf dem Schwarzen Meer ist aufgrund des russischen Angriffskriegs in der Ukraine hochgefährlich und stark eingeschränkt. Für ausländische Schiffe soll es nun einen See-Korridor geben, meldet Russland. Schon ab Freitag soll dieser befahrbar sein.

Für ausländische Schiffe in ukrainischen Häfen soll nach russischen Angaben vom morgigen Freitag an ein See-Korridor im Schwarzen Meer eingerichtet werden. Die Schiffe sollten auf diesem Weg sicher ins offene Meer gelangen, teilte das russische Verteidigungsministerium in Moskau mit. Der Sammelpunkt sei 20 Seemeilen südöstlich des Hafens Tschornomorsk im Gebiet Odessa, sagte der russische Generalmajor Michail Misinzew. [...]

"Wir unterstreichen noch einmal, dass von der Russischen Föderation keinerlei Gefahr für den freien zivilen Schiffsverkehr ausgeht", sagte Misinzew. Insgesamt seien 67 Schiffe aus 15 Ländern blockiert in verschiedenen ukrainischen Häfen.

Zitat:Russia 'telling armed forces war must end by 9 May'

Despite widespread accounts of problems faced by Vladimir Putin's forces in Ukraine, Russian soldiers in the country are reportedly being told by superiors that the war must end by 9 May.

The Ukrainian army says there is "constant propaganda work being carried out among the personnel of the Russian Federation's armed forces" which refers to the date - which is carries significance as the annually celebrated "Victory Day" on which Russia's successful Second World War campaign is commemorated with a parade in Moscow.

Zitat:Ukraine fighting back and repelling Russian forces - UK

The UK's Ministry of Defence has released its latest intelligence assessment of the war, saying that Ukraine has been able to re-take towns and defensive positions east of the capital, Kyiv. The MoD says Ukraine has also had some success pushing Russian forces back from land they had taken north-west of Kyiv. [...]

Zitat:Satellite images show flooding north of Kyiv in possible sign of ‘hydraulic warfare’

Photographs from Planet Labs PBC, an American firm, and other researchers appear to show a large expanse of flooded land north of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. In a pair of before and after images, taken on Feb. 22 and Feb. 28, the swath of territory becomes significantly more sodden. [...] The Washington Post was not able to confirm that the flooding was intentional, but Planet Labs said it cited outside analysts who believe it was deliberate. If so, it would be the latest example of a centuries-old practice. [...]

Deliberate flooding during combat — either to erect a barrier or destroy an area — is known as “hydraulic warfare,” and it has often been used to supplement a defensive strategy, Kepe said.

Zitat:Wir haben schon immer eine klare Rote Linie, die nun zu verschieben verändert bzw. erhöht natürlich das Risiko, genau das ist ja Sinn und Zweck dieser Verschiebung.

Zitat:Lawrow: Westen hat Russland „totalen hybriden Krieg“ erklärt

„Heute haben sie uns einen echten hybriden Krieg erklärt, den totalen Krieg“, sagte Lawrow bei einer Sitzung mit Vertretern einer Diplomatie-Stiftung der Staatsagentur Tass zufolge. Lawrow sagte weiter, Europas Politiker wollten Russland „zerstören, brechen, vernichten, erdrosseln“. „Wenn wir diese Gesetzlosigkeit der Sanktionen sehen, ist natürlich klar, dass all diese Werte, die uns unsere westlichen Kollegen ständig gepredigt haben – nämlich Meinungsfreiheit, Marktwirtschaft und die Unverletzlichkeit des Privateigentums, die Unschuldsvermutung – wertlos sind.“

Zitat:Gesamtkarte:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507211542986735617/photo/1

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 26-29: The past 96 hours has seen a lot of activity throughout the UTW, Russia is actively transitioning to a protracted defense, with offensive operations continuing in the Donbas. Ukrainian forces counterattack in Kyiv.

2/ After a month of war, the Kremlin has faced the reality that their invasion has failed and it is time to retool their war effort for a more protracted conflict, this is according to the head of Pres. Zelensky’s office, Myhailo Podoiyak.

3/ According to Podoiyak’s statement, Russian leadership have come to terms that they do not have the resources or forces on hand to resume offensive operations. They need time to replace losses and reduce domestic dissent. The Kremlin show no sign of changing course.

4/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries exceeds 4.2 million, with over 6.5 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. Russian injustices against the Ukrainian populace multiple by the day; kidnappings and seizure of property continues.

5/ Weather assessment. Forecasted rain and wintery mix for 5 of the next 10 days will adversely affect aerospace and ground operations, potentially slowing down offensive momentum. Temperatures generally will remain between 13/0 C.

Karte Kiew:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507212069992599553/photo/1

6/ Kyiv Front assessment. Ukrainian forces initiated a series of counterattacks west of Kyiv and against the occupied suburbs of Irpin, Bucha, Vorzel, and Moshchun on 22 March. These attacks are most likely designed to regain as much territory in NW Kyiv as possible.

Karte Irpin:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507212182689394689/photo/1

7/ Ukrainian officials claimed late on 23 March that Russian forces have been encircled in Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel, satellite imagery & FIRMS data seem to suggest this is not yet the case; though it may become a reality if these counterattacks continue and make more progress.

Karte Sumy:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507212331926925312/photo/1

8/ Sumy Front Assessment. Russian forces still struggle to secure their logistics base. Ukrainian counterattacks throughout this front is a case study in deep operations, though with the use of small-scale mobile light infantry to reduce Russian logistical abilities.

Karte Chernihiv:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507212478186504192/photo/1

9/ Chernihiv AO. Chernihiv has been a major obstacle for Russian forces since the beginning of the invasion. The Russian will not succeed in taking the city by force any time soon, efforts here will continue to hinder Russian offensive action against east Kyiv.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507212660621946883/photo/1

10/ Sumy AO. The Russian military’s failure to capture Sumy in the opening days of the war has seriously impacted its ability to extend effective operational reach into east Kyiv. It is highly likely that a Rus false-flag chemical attack could occur here to justify their wide use.

Karte Donbass:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507212888511066114/photo/1

11/ Donbas Front assessment. The Russian military appears to have made this front a priority for offensive operations, as it is the only area that any recent success has been sustained, although progress remains slow and difficult.

Karte Kharkiev:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507213137912770561/photo/1

12/ Kharkiv AO. Russian forces have conducted no significant action in the Kharkiv area over the past 96 hrs. The buildup and reconstitution of forces in the area are most likely meant to renew operations to fix Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv to deny their employment elsewhere.

Donets:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507213347573440513/photo/1

13/ Donets Line. Izium has been the focal point of intense fighting over the past 96 hrs. The Russians have yet to capture Izium in its entirety, it is unclear if the Ukrainians will be able to hold this part of the line. Expect the Russians to continue to reinforce this effort.

Mariupol:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507213613869801472/photo/1

14/ Mariupol. The Russian assault of Mariupol has been a mix of standard practices toward seizing an urban area and siege tactics learned in Syria targeting the civilian population to coerce surrender. Ukraine’s ability to hold the city continues to sap Russian resources.

Karte Süden:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507213733629730816/photo/1

15/ Southern Front. The Russian advance on Mykolaiyv has been defeated. Ukraine’s limited counterattacks seem to have successfully broken the Russian ability to advance beyond the Southern Bug River to threaten Odesa. Russia is now focused on retaining gains made in Kherson.

16/ Aerospace Assessment. Over the past 96 hrs. VKS has increased the pace and extent of its strikes throughout Ukraine to break the UAF and Ukraine’s IAD. To date an estimated 1100 PGMs have been used. These efforts are still falling short.

17/ The UAF is punching well above its weight and can inflict serious losses against Russian forces. The successful strike against Russian ships in Mariupol make this evident. Yet the UAF must preserve combat power in the face of increased VKS activity.

18/ Information War. The Kremlin has a serious problem mobilizing domestic support. What is worrying is the messaging state media is flooding all approved media outlets with, namely framing the war as an existential crisis for Russia’s survival.

19/ It is dangerous to ignore statements like the pervious one. With messaging claiming Ukraine and the West are collaborating to use biological or chemical agents against Russia, and that their goal is to dismember Russia, the war could easily escalate into a wider conflict.

20/ Battle Damage Assessment. There has been a lot of discussion over the past 96 hours of new estimates of Russian combat losses, especially NATO estimates. Whatever the true numbers are what is clear is that high-intensity combat is unforgiving.

21/ Russian and Ukrainian forces have sustained high rates of casualties, the gradual slowing pace of offensive operations is indicative of this. Both sides are entering into a period of struggling to replace manpower and equipment losses.

22/ But for Russia, this might be more difficult, as we are already seeing evidence of a defense-industry under increasing strain from being able to maintain pace with battlefield losses. More troubling for Russia is it struggle in finding willing recruits to refill its ranks.

23/ Ukraine must balance between pushing for more Western support, and not pushing so hard it causes unnecessary strain with NATO and other partner nations. For NATO, there is increasing likelihood Russia will directly target aid shipments to maintain battlefield equilibrium.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1507214935373361166/photo/1

(25.03.2022, 15:08)Quintus Fabius schrieb: Und du schreibst selbst, dass die Einsatzwahrscheinlichkeit sich durch die beschriebene Strategie erhöhen würde