(27.03.2024, 13:26)Hinnerk2005 schrieb: Was ist eigentlich im öffentlichen Informationsraum über mögliche Angriffsszenarien der VR China auf Taiwan bekannt? Die US Militärs haben ja ihre eigenen "Planspiele" und simulieren.

Aber was kann ich als interessierter Laie davon einsehen? Ich möchte mir gerne ein eigenes Bild machen. Wo fange ich da an?

Ich finde es unbefriedigend zu sagen oder zu hören "Die Chinesen greifen bis 2027 an". Was bedeutet das genau und konkret? Was sind unsere Erwartungen? Welche Szenarien sind wahrscheinlich? usw. usf.

Zitat:Ich verstehe nicht warum die Szenarien alle von einer Eroberung Taiwans durch Bodentruppen ausgehen.

(27.03.2024, 17:48)Schneemann schrieb: Was sollte denn sonst die Option sein, wenn man eine Wiedervereinigung anstrebt? Und das genannte Blockade-Beispiel würden die Rotchinesen weniger lange durchhalten als die Taiwanesen - wenn es ein größerer Konflikt wäre.

Schneemann

Zitat:Bridge Laying Ships: China Tries New Ways for Shore Landings
15 Mar 2025, 09:16 2 mins
China
Country
Bridge Laying Ships: China Tries New Ways for Shore Landings
China is building barge ships capable of deploying long bridges for direct access to coastal roads and bypass obstacles for its amphibious operations.

Images of a new support ship for landing operations were first seen on Chinese social media. The ship has a retractable bridge and deployable support legs for stability at shore.

While the ship is sure to be used in landing operations, it can not be described as a landing ship as it seemingly has no provisions for transport. This part is still left to the existing platforms built for said duty.

It can be taken as an oversized assault bridge in the form of a ship used by land forces worldwide. However, this ship is meant to allow the crossing through land obstacles instead of rivers or other shallow water bodies.

Due to its intended role, the equipment to be used is not yet revealed, but the ship will likely have navigation radars, electro-optics, and small to medium-calibre weaponry.

Zitat:Abe die Medien hierzulande haben ja vorsorglich in den letzten Tagen schon geschrien, dass Taiwan von chinesischen Schiffen und Flugzeugträgern umzingelt wird.

(06.04.2025, 13:22)Schneemann schrieb: @Kongo Erich
Ja, das haben sie. Und was ist daran falsch? Die rotchinesischen Aktivitäten sind eine eindeutige Drohkulisse und es sind Muskelspiele - die zudem mit vulgärer Propaganda umrahmt wurden -, um eine kleine Inselnation einzuschüchtern. Wenn Peking also seine Marine dort herumgondeln lässt, dann nicht um etwa selbstlos taiwanesische Fischereigründe zu schützen und um gutnachbarschaftlich Hilfe anzubieten, sondern es sind klare Einschüchterungs- und Bedrohungsaspekte vorliegend.

Schneemann

Zitat:@Schneemann
Das kann man auch anders sehen. Taiwan ist Bestandteil der 1. Inselkette unmittelbar vor der chinesischen Küste.
Wenn China im Küstenvorfeld eine Defensivübung abhält, ja sogar, wenn ein chinesisches Kriegsschiff von Hongkong oder Kanton nach Shanghai schippert, muss zwangsläufig Taiwan passiert werden - egal ob westlich oder östlich der Insel.
Und das gilt erst recht, wenn die Streitkräfte Chinas im westlichen Pazifik üben wollen. Dann gehen die wenigen freien "internationalen Gewässer" unmittelbar südlich oder nördlich von Taiwan vorbei.

Im Endeffekt muss man also schon näher hinschauen, bevor man aus jedem hochseefähigen Kriegsschiff der Volksrepublik eine Bedrohung der Insel macht.

Zitat:Taiwan thinks the unthinkable: resisting China without America

Its plan was to hold off a Chinese attack until America turned up. What now?


If Taiwan can resist Chinese invasion forces for a month, then Communist Party leaders in Beijing can be deterred. That calculation has long guided war planners and politicians in Taiwan. The democratically ruled island would need to survive weeks of bombardment, blockade or even amphibious landings by the People’s Liberation Army, to give America time to turn up and save the day.

Alas, Taiwanese confidence that America will arrive at all is growing weaker by the day. That is reshaping the plans that the island’s sitting government, which is determined to resist Chinese aggression, must make for its defence.

For years, the island has had to live with a degree of doubt. When President Donald Trump declines to say whether he would risk war with China to save Taiwan, he is following the precedent set by most modern presidents, who used “strategic ambiguity” to deter rash moves by either side to change the status quo. Under the terms of that uneasy stand-off, China calls Taiwan a province that must one day return to the motherland. The island’s leaders deny being part of the People’s Republic of China, but stop short of declaring Taiwan a separate country. American ambiguity leaves China’s supreme leader, Xi Jinping, wrestling with uncertainties. If Mr Xi wants to avoid conflict with America, he needs to be sure of a quick victory, or must stay his hand. As for leading Taiwanese opposition politicians, they have long seized on that same ambiguity to portray America as an unreliable friend, and counselled accommodation of China to buy peace.

What is new is the alarm engendered in Taiwan by Mr Trump’s treatment of Ukraine. When Mr Trump scorns Ukraine as a small country that foolishly imagines it can defy a larger neighbour, Taiwanese hear echoes of their own plight. It does not help that Mr Trump has long scoffed at Taiwan’s prospects in a fight with China. And if America stays aloof, no other power will take up arms in Taiwan’s defence (see Asia section).

True, Chinese hopes of a quick victory were shaken by the failure of Russia’s own attempt at a lightning conquest of Ukraine in February 2022: a debacle that China has studied minutely. But now Ukraine’s long war is forcing Taiwan and friendly governments, including in Europe, to make unprecedented public efforts to prepare the island’s 23m people for a crisis lasting far longer than a month, such as a naval blockade.

In June, The Telegram travelled to Berlin for the Taiwan Trilateral Forum, a meeting of diplomats and analysts from America, Europe and Taiwan. Asked for lessons from Ukraine, a Taiwanese participant replied that his island needs “to prove to the rest of the world that Taiwan is able to fight for an extended period”. This is as much a political as a military imperative. Taiwan’s plan is “to hold on as long as possible, while China’s legitimacy is challenged and the international community has time to help”, he added.

Speakers described a flurry of studies and war-games in Western capitals, weighing Taiwan’s vulnerabilities. Taiwanese firms, notably tsmc, make more than 90% of the world’s cutting-edge semiconductors. Even if tsmc foundries are not blown up, the forum heard, a blockade could stop just-in-time imports of specialist gases and chemicals needed to make chips. The meeting, organised by the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think-tank, heard of growing seriousness in Taiwan, too. Green groups that clamoured for ageing nuclear power plants to be shut down are more open to arguments about national security and the risks of Taiwan’s heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels.

Trump administration views were parsed like scripture. There were accounts of reassuring meetings with the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, and the secretary of state, Marco Rubio. Against that, there were dismaying reports of Britain and Germany being chided by other American officials for sending warships through the Taiwan Strait to uphold the freedom of navigation. Europeans should be focusing on Europe’s security, was the message.

The new German government risked China’s wrath by allowing Jaushieh Joseph Wu, the head of Taiwan’s national security council and a former foreign minister, to address the forum in Berlin. Praising Germany’s “courage”, Mr Wu pledged that Taiwan will spend more on defence but will “not be a provocateur”, in remarks that German officials allowed to be made public. Speaking a stone’s throw from Friedrichstrasse station, a cold-war crossing point between East and West Germany, Mr Wu hailed West Berlin’s survival as an island of freedom. He described Taiwan’s improving civilian resilience, including the stockpiling of food, water, medicines and energy, and “whole of society” training drills.

Taiwan contemplates a harsher, lonelier world
Under Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s president from 2016-24, such planning was kept secret to avoid alarming the public and foreign investors. The current president, Lai Ching-te, has chaired meetings about resilience and live-streamed them. His hope is to educate a society riven by partisan divisions. Promoting civilian resilience is a diplomatic play, too, allowing friendly powers to help Taiwan without arms sales that would enrage China. Israel and Finland, two countries with advanced civil-defence systems, have both welcomed Taiwanese fact-finding missions. Other Western countries want to learn from Taiwan’s expertise in fighting off Chinese cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns.

One step is almost unsayable aloud. Should Taiwan rehearse how to resist occupation by China, striving to be ungovernable after a defeat? Several Taiwanese experts are sceptical. They call such planning defeatist, divisive and panic-inducing. Besides, fears of post-war unrest and resistance on Taiwan will not deter Mr Xi, sceptics argue. Other Taiwanese see no choice. They point to Ukraine’s starkest lesson: survival is a long game.

(09.04.2025, 05:39)Schneemann schrieb: @Kongo Erich
Ich denke nicht, dass man das anders sehen kann oder sollte. Es geht hier auch nicht um Defensivübungen im Küstenvorfeld oder um Verlegungen von einem Hafen zum anderen, sondern um Übungen, die eindeutig einen offensiven und einschüchternden Charakter haben und haben sollen. Und solche hält China serienweise ab, während gleichzeitig das Außenministerium in Peking von Stabilität und Frieden in der Region redet. Das ist Hohn in den Ohren quasi aller Anrainer, und für Taiwan gilt das natürlich im speziellen.

Schneemann

Zitat:Hacker wollen ein brisantes Rüstungsgeschäft zwischen Peking und Moskau aufgedeckt haben. Eine mögliche Invasion Taiwans durch Xi Jinpings China rückt in den Fokus.

Peking – Die militärischen Beziehungen zwischen Russland und China gelten als eng. Das besorgt den kleinen Inselstaat Taiwan. Und das beunruhigt mit Blick auf den Ukraine-Krieg die Verteidigungsallianz Nato. Ein Beispiel: Zwischen dem 3. und dem 5. August ließen Moskau und Peking ihre Marinen vor der Küste der ostrussischen Hafenstadt Wladiwostok gemeinsame Übungen abhalten. Doch damit lange nicht genug.
...

(06.08.2025, 11:56)Kongo Erich schrieb: Gas und Öl kann China anderswo in ausreichenden Mengen auch günstig erhalten, regenerative Energien machen China zunehmend von fossilen Lieferanten unabhängig, die Rüstungsindustrie hat inzwischen russische Kapazitäten qualitativ und quantitativ überholt.
Xi wäre bescheuert, wenn er die zunehmende Abhängigkeit Russlands nicht für seine Zwecke ausnützen würde.